Opening day was full of surprises. It began early when the start of the game was delayed by lightning. The combined later start and rain soaked field might have made you think that the offenses would have some trouble and the total of 48.5 would be well under. The under was starting to look good for the first quarter as both offenses struggled a bit and Baltimore had a 7-0 lead to end the 1st. Then, a couple of bad turnovers and a blocked punt got the Broncos offense started. The Ravens still managed to go into halftime with a 3 point lead, 17-14.
And then the third quarter came and Baltimore forgot to come out of the tunnels. Peyton Manning already looks like the steal of any fantasy football draft. 7 touchdowns passes later ...
I have a couple of things to note about this game other than Peyton's historic passing night. First of which is the emergence of Julius Thomas. I was skeptical of him as a starting fantasy tight end at first. I mean, there are all of the other offensive weapons to account for. However, Peyton has always involved the Tight End in his offense, from Dallas Clark (who made a resurgence as Baltimore's TE) to Jacob Tamme. Thomas received most of his catches early on when he beat the linebacker matchups for 2 TDs and 97 yards. He was accounted for in the 2nd half, but that opened up Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas. Julius Thomas is without a doubt the free agent pickup of week 1. If you have a league where free agency happens immediately, he's already claimed. If you have to wait until Tuesday, get your claim in. Denver's offense is going to be too loaded for him to make that kind of production every week, but he will have some games where he will go off like this.
Wherefore art thou Eric Decker?
Lost in the midst of a 7 TD performance of Peyton Manning is the strange disappearing act that Eric Decker performed. 7 TDs and he doesn't even get one? A total of 32 yards receiving on 2 receptions, a dropped touchdown pass and a fumbled ball out of bounds? Ouch. He is listed as having an injury to his right shoulder, but it's probably more of a bruised pride to fantasy owners.
Demaryius Thomas wasn't looking so good either until he got most of his production in the 4th quarter. Fantasy owner can thank the Broncos' defense and especially linebacker Danny Trevathan for pulling his best DeSean Jackson impression and fumbling a pick 6 just short of the goal line. Without that play, Baltimore doesn't make a mini-comeback and that 78 yard bubble screen never happens.
What's good for Demaryius Thomas owners was horrible for the people who played Denver's defense. Not only did you lose the 6 points for the defensive touchdown that turned into a touchback, but you also lost unnecessary points when Baltimore made their comeback with slightly renewed hope.
Wes Welker is still a great option for PPR leagues with a game high 9 receptions. But, you better brace yourself for some low scoring games if you are not in a PPR league. He did get two TDs and appears to be a legitimate red zone threat, but his average of 7.5 yards per catch means that you shouldn't expect a lot of yardage from him this year.
As far as Denver running backs are concerned, you better wait a couple of weeks before you start any of them. Knowshon Moreno got the bulk of the carries in the first half and most of the production rushing and receiving, but that wasn't saying much. In the second half, all three backs split carries. Monte Ball may be the running back of the future, but he had a critical blunder near the end of the game when he ran to the wrong side of Peyton to get the ball. Ronnie Hillman appears to be nothing more than a 3rd down back.
Baltimore!
Ray Lewis screamed it loudly last year at the Super Bowl parade, but his voice has now faded from the team. It looks like the defense might be in trouble after all with the loss of him and Ed Reed. Elvis Dumervil did have a sack and T Suggs is still the man, but otherwise this defense looks sparse this season. Peyton can make a lot of teams look bad, but the 49 points is the most the Ravens have ever let up. A couple of those TDs were on a very short field, but you have to stop them for a field goal one of those times.
Ray Rice may be in trouble. Maybe this is a one time setback, maybe it's going to be the start of a trend. But, Vonta Leach and Bernard Peirce are starting to eat away at his production. If Joe Flacco continues throwing more than 50 times per game (34 of 62 against Denver), then Ray Rice is going to have to do a lot better than 3.0 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per reception to warrant that first round fantasy pick.
Where are the Baltimore wide receivers? Besides Torrey Smith, who is going to step up? I would have said Jacoby Jones until his own man injured him on a fair catch. Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark got a lot of targets; Dickson looked pretty bad in dropping a couple of those. Marlon Brown is going to be your number 2 free agent pickup, but there is no way that you can guarantee that production again. Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark are two of your main offensive weapons? Did I time warp back to 2006?
Even Joe Flacco thinks that Joe Flacco had a bad game last night. His quarterback rating of 34.4 underlies his decent fantasy performance of 362 yards passing, 2 TDs and 2 Ints. This team simply isn't going to make the playoffs if he continues to pass the ball more than 50 times a game. He's going to need some help, though, and I just don't see it right now. Denver was without Von Miller and Champ Bailey and Baltimore's offense still didn't look that good.
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