Free Agent Fantasy Pickups from the Week 1 4:00PM ET Starts

Only two more free agent pickups for your FFL team from the late games:

#1 Jared Cook - He's obviously a top target for Sam Bradford. You might not be able to expect the TDs every week, but he gets the targets. He has 7 receptions for 141 yards and 2 TDs. He looks like a legitimate No. 1 TE.

#2 Andre Roberts - He looks like Arizona's #2 WR right now over Michael Floyd, but that could change from week to week. Andre finished with 97 yards receiving on 8 catches. Andre has more targets (9) and more receptions (8) than Michael Floyd (4 receptions for 82 yards).

Free Agent Fantasy Pickups from the Week 1 1:00PM ET Starts

There were a lot of duds this first week and some predictable results. That being said, there were a couple of free agent pickups that you need to look to make if you can. I do not have Shane Vereen on this list because he was already owned in the vast majority of FFLs.

#1 - Julian Edelman: by far he is looking like the better option as New England's 2nd wide receiver over Kenbrell Thompkins. Thompkins really hurt the Pats and almost cost them the game. He ran several wrong routes and cut off other routes early. Julian Edelman caught 7 receptions for 79 yards and 2 TDs. He made some huge catches as did Danny Amendola to help the Patriots avoid the upset.

#2 - Joique Bell: he may not be a week to week producer, but he is definitely worth the pick up if he is available. He is getting the goal line touches over Reggie Bush, who did outstanding this first game. Joique got 6 carries for 25 yards and 2 TDs. He also had 5 receptions for 67 yards.

#3 - Terrelle Pryor: Oakland has themselves a mobile quarterback. He had 13 carries for 112 yards and almost led the Raiders to an improbable win against the Colts (people everywhere are breathing a sigh of relief with their suicide picks). The downside you can't rely on his arm yet. He made a couple of costly interceptions and went 19/29 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.

#4 - Fred Jackson: C.J. Spiller fumbled once and did not get the majority of the carries in the 2nd half. Fred Jackson also fumbled once but it wasn't recovered by the defense. He did outperform C.J. with 13 carries for 67 yards and 4 receptions for 41 yards compared to 17 carries for 41 yards and 5 receptions for 14 yards.

#5 - Brian Hartline: Don't know how many times you can expect this performance from him. Mike Wallace was locked down all day, which left him open. He was by far the best Dolphin on offense today. He got 9 receptions for 114 yards and 1 TD.

#6 - James Cameron: The lone bright spot for the Cleveland Browns in a lost to Miami. He had 9 receptions for 108 yards and 1 TD. He's not a #1 TE but he is a solid #2.

#7 - Daniel Thomas: This is a speculative pickup because Lamar Miller was just awful against the Browns. It might not matter which back you have, but you may want to hedge your bets if you have drafted Lamar. Thomas had 8 carries for 14 yards and 1 TD as well as 1 reception for 5 yards. Not impressive, but still better than Miller's 10 carries for 3 yards and 1 reception for 7 yards.

#8 - Nate Burleson: He may take a hit once Ryan Broyles comes back from injury. But, he did impress with 6 receptions for 78 yards and will get looks since Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson are going to get all of the attention from the defense.

#9 - Jerome Simpson: Impressive numbers (7 reception for 140 yards), but the Minnesota Vikings passing game is terrible. They made the Lions defense look really good today and they could key on Adrian Peterson after the first long TD run.

#10 - Harry Douglas: Only consider him if Roddy White remains hobbled by injuries. He had 4 receptions for 93 yards.

#11 - Kenny Stills: He has taken Robert Meachem's traditional spot as the deep threat #3 wide receiver. 2 receptions for 86 yards.

#12 - Kellen Winslow: A reach only if you are desperate. Jets offense is still terrible, but he should be the outlet for Geno Smith. 7 receptions for 79 yards and 1 TD.

Happy Opening Night of NFL

Opening day was full of surprises. It began early when the start of the game was delayed by lightning. The combined later start and rain soaked field might have made you think that the offenses would have some trouble and the total of 48.5 would be well under. The under was starting to look good for the first quarter as both offenses struggled a bit and Baltimore had a 7-0 lead to end the 1st. Then, a couple of bad turnovers and a blocked punt got the Broncos offense started. The Ravens still managed to go into halftime with a 3 point lead, 17-14.

And then the third quarter came and Baltimore forgot to come out of the tunnels. Peyton Manning already looks like the steal of any fantasy football draft. 7 touchdowns passes later ...

I have a couple of things to note about this game other than Peyton's historic passing night. First of which is the emergence of Julius Thomas. I was skeptical of him as a starting fantasy tight end at first. I mean, there are all of the other offensive weapons to account for. However, Peyton has always involved the Tight End in his offense, from Dallas Clark (who made a resurgence as Baltimore's TE) to Jacob Tamme. Thomas received most of his catches early on when he beat the linebacker matchups for 2 TDs and 97 yards. He was accounted for in the 2nd half, but that opened up Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas. Julius Thomas is without a doubt the free agent pickup of week 1. If you have a league where free agency happens immediately, he's already claimed. If you have to wait until Tuesday, get your claim in. Denver's offense is going to be too loaded for him to make that kind of production every week, but he will have some games where he will go off like this.

Wherefore art thou Eric Decker?

Lost in the midst of a 7 TD performance of Peyton Manning is the strange disappearing act that Eric Decker performed. 7 TDs and he doesn't even get one? A total of 32 yards receiving on 2 receptions, a dropped touchdown pass and a fumbled ball out of bounds? Ouch. He is listed as having an injury to his right shoulder, but it's probably more of a bruised pride to fantasy owners.

Demaryius Thomas wasn't looking so good either until he got most of his production in the 4th quarter. Fantasy owner can thank the Broncos' defense and especially linebacker Danny Trevathan for pulling his best DeSean Jackson impression and fumbling a pick 6 just short of the goal line. Without that play, Baltimore doesn't make a mini-comeback and that 78 yard bubble screen never happens.

What's good for Demaryius Thomas owners was horrible for the people who played Denver's defense. Not only did you lose the 6 points for the defensive touchdown that turned into a touchback, but you also lost unnecessary points when Baltimore made their comeback with slightly renewed hope.

Wes Welker is still a great option for PPR leagues with a game high 9 receptions. But, you better brace yourself for some low scoring games if you are not in a PPR league. He did get two TDs and appears to be a legitimate red zone threat, but his average of 7.5 yards per catch means that you shouldn't expect a lot of yardage from him this year.

As far as Denver running backs are concerned, you better wait a couple of weeks before you start any of them. Knowshon Moreno got the bulk of the carries in the first half and most of the production rushing and receiving, but that wasn't saying much. In the second half, all three backs split carries. Monte Ball may be the running back of the future, but he had a critical blunder near the end of the game when he ran to the wrong side of Peyton to get the ball. Ronnie Hillman appears to be nothing more than a 3rd down back.

Baltimore!

Ray Lewis screamed it loudly last year at the Super Bowl parade, but his voice has now faded from the team. It looks like the defense might be in trouble after all with the loss of him and Ed Reed. Elvis Dumervil did have a sack and T Suggs is still the man, but otherwise this defense looks sparse this season. Peyton can make a lot of teams look bad, but the 49 points is the most the Ravens have ever let up. A couple of those TDs were on a very short field, but you have to stop them for a field goal one of those times.

Ray Rice may be in trouble. Maybe this is a one time setback, maybe it's going to be the start of a trend. But, Vonta Leach and Bernard Peirce are starting to eat away at his production. If Joe Flacco continues throwing more than 50 times per game (34 of 62 against Denver), then Ray Rice is going to have to do a lot better than 3.0 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per reception to warrant that first round fantasy pick.

Where are the Baltimore wide receivers? Besides Torrey Smith, who is going to step up? I would have said Jacoby Jones until his own man injured him on a fair catch. Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark got a lot of targets; Dickson looked pretty bad in dropping a couple of those. Marlon Brown is going to be your number 2 free agent pickup, but there is no way that you can guarantee that production again. Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark are two of your main offensive weapons? Did I time warp back to 2006?

Even Joe Flacco thinks that Joe Flacco had a bad game last night. His quarterback rating of 34.4 underlies his decent fantasy performance of 362 yards passing, 2 TDs and 2 Ints. This team simply isn't going to make the playoffs if he continues to pass the ball more than 50 times a game. He's going to need some help, though, and I just don't see it right now. Denver was without Von Miller and Champ Bailey and Baltimore's offense still didn't look that good.

Fantasy Football Draft for 2013

I realize that I have been neglecting my blog for the past year or two. Sorry about that; this season I plan on changing that. I have already completely redesigned my website and have all of the current stats, rankings and advice updated.

Most of you have probably already drafted by now. I have already done this for the 3 leagues that I am in this season. If you haven't drafted yet. I suggest that you take a look at my site here. I have a cheetsheat for a small fee, but I haven't had many takers as I have offered my overall rankings and rankings by position for free.

What I did for the rankings this year was different than the other years that I have updated the Fantasy Football Manager website. Before, I just created my own lists based upon who I thought would be good in the upcoming season. This was basically a fact finding mission where I gathered the statistics from the previous year and combined that with the offseason upgrades that each team made.

This year, I decided to go with the experts whose job it is to put out these rankings. I know that sounds like a cop out, but I didn't just take the rankings from one expert. Instead, I took the opinions of roughly 30 experts and created an average based on all of their rankings. This will eliminate some of the biases to one team or one player that I have seen.

An example of this would be RGIII, who I saw ranked as high as 25th overall and as low as 108 overall. My rankings showed that he is 58 on average. There are a lot of players who were very similar, especially some of the wide receivers such as Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, etc.

Yahoo Fantasy Leagues

Two of my leagues use the Yahoo Fantasy Football website. I like it for a couple of reasons. During the draft, you can see all of the relevant information about a player such last year's stats and bye week info. You can create your own pre-draft rankings to enter into the draft board. This is helpful because Yahoo doesn't update their draft board; Dennis Pitta, Percy Harvin, Danario Alexander and even Aaron Hernandez was left in the top 100.

I like to use my list in coordination with the Yahoo list (which is still available even if you update the pre-draft rankings) and the Average Draft Position (ADP) to see how far down the board a player I am targeting is located. If they are far enough away, you can often leave that player and they will still be around in the next round. This can burn you however, as it did when I tried to leave Kenbrell Thompkins (who got drafted way to high in my leagues).

Your draft team is readily available, but you can check out other managers with a simple click to see what positions they are likely going to select. You can also put players into a queue which will allow you to target a few players without having to see the entire draft board.

They had a neat feature which they started this year. About an hour after the draft was over, each player receives an automated Draft Grade which is powered by Automated Insights. They combine the projected points, any bye week issues, and your rank by position to receive a grade. I received a B+ in my first draft (2nd overall next to another person who also had a B+) and I finished with an A+ in my second draft (only person with an A of any kind).

My first draft includes the following players (5th pick overall) - 1. C.J. Spiller; 2. Aaron Rodgers; 3. Demaryius Thomas; 4. DeMarco Murray; 5. Dwayne Bowe; 6. Tony Gonzalez; 7. Ahmad Bradshaw; 8. Rashard Mendenhall; 9. Cecil Shorts; 10. Shane Vereen; 11. Anquan Boldin; 12. Kenny Britt; 13. Brandon Myers; 14. Joe Flacco - then a couple of throwaways and an average kicker and defense. This is my risk vs reward team and I think that the B+ was a little generous.

My second draft was much better (1st pick overall) - 1. Adrian Peterson; 2. Brandon Marshall; 3. Julio Jones; 4. Hakeem Nicks; 5. Lamar Miller; 6. Rob Gronkowski; 7. Ryan Mathews; 8. Tony Romo; 9. Montee Ball; 10. Chicago Defense; 11. Eli Manning; 12. Knowshon Moreno; 13. Antonio Gates; 14. Blair Walsh; 15. Justin Blackmon - then three throwaways. I was happy to see an A+ since only two other people in either draft even received a B+.

I'm not really a fan of picking up handcuff RBs unless it is a situation like Denver or Pittsburgh. You are probably going to drop them anyways if the starter doesn't get hurt or demoted in the first 4 weeks.

Betting on the NFL

As a fantasy owner, one of the things that I like to do is hedge my bets. That's why I specifically excluded the top 6 picks from my first draft when I was making selections for my second draft. One other way that I can hedge that bet is by betting on the Player Props at some of the Sports Betting websites that I am signed up at.

Let's say I am playing someone who owns Drew Brees and they are playing at home against Carolina that week. I will check the prop bets and place a $50 bet on Drew Brees to throw for 3+ TDs. This won't pay out much higher than 1 to 1, but I feel good either way by winning $50 or by winning that week in my fantasy league. I will do this once or twice per week with the opponent's top players. I don't like betting on my own guys because then I will feel like crap when I get the double whammy.

When it comes to betting on the spread, it's all about betting selectively and shopping the NFL betting lines.

In order to bet selectively, take a look at the games being played at 1:00PM ET. There are usually between 8 and 10 games available. Rank them in order of confidence with the spread from lowest to highest. Then, I will take the top 2 and place a $50 bet on those two games. Regardless of how I do, I will check the 4:00PM ET games; there are usually 3 or 4 of them. I will rank them in confidence and place a $50 bet on the one I am most confident with.

Bankroll management is of key importance here. I have a bankroll of $1000 that I keep for betting the spread. I bet $50 early because I don't wager more than 5% of my bankroll on any one bet. If I lose 15% of my bankroll (I.E. all three games), I'm done for the week. Period. End of story.

If I win on all three games, I will place a $100 bet on the Sunday night game. If I win either 1 or 2 games, I will place a $50 bet on the Sunday night game. If I lose the Sunday night game, I don't bet on the Monday night game. If I win the Sunday night game, I will place a bet on the Sunday night game. It's that easy.

When it comes to shopping lines, it is very important. Let's say I'm betting the favorite at -7.5. I'm going to try to find a sportsbook that offers a -6.5 or -7 line. If I am betting on the underdog, I'm going to look for a sportsbook that offers an -8 or -8.5 line. There are several good sportsbooks out there. You just need to do some work and look around.

If you do all of that and follow my advice, you will have a pretty good chance of winning money and not going broke. It's all about discipline.

Upcoming Season on Fantasy Football Manager Blog

I am planning on doing at least weekly updates as far as waiver wire pickups and injuries are concerned. If I have time, I will tell you some of my own personal stories about fantasy football and the games that I am watching or betting on. Stay tuned and come back again!

2012 Fantasy Football Updates

I have updates for the 2012 Fantasy Football Season coming out on my website tonight. I realize that many people may already have had their draft. These people are probably already well organized and don't really need my help.

However, many of us are just starting to look seriously at the 2012 Fantasy Football season. Many of the drafts are going to be taking place this week. If this sounds like you, then you should take a look at Fantasy Football Manager to get your updates and player rankings before your draft.

The reason that I often don't start until this late is because there is a lot that can happen during the preseason: people get cut and sign elsewhere, people get injured, people are holding out. All of this effects the rankings before you have your draft. If you are using outdated information, you can probably expect to draft a couple of busts during your draft.

Injuries happen throughout the season; there's nothing you can do if your team gets hit by the injury bug. However, if you also draft a suspect player in the early rounds of your draft, you probably are going to stop playing seriously around week 10.

Drafting Running backs is still important to having a good team. However, we are now seeing that you can get by if you have several of the best in the other fantasy positions.

As I update the website, I will also put the posts for Overall and Positional Player Rankings here.

Beginning 2011 Fantasy Football Notes

So, once again I was a little too busy with my work to finish any of the Fantasy Football lists on my website this year. Sorry about the ones of you who actually are reading this and are bummed that I didn't finish the pre-draft rankings.

I've been so busy recently that I only had time to sign up for 2 leagues this year. I may get back into posting my pickup specials on a weekly basis.

Would you like a couple of freebies? I know you do. You are going to want to pick up both of the RBs if you get the chance: Bernard Scott (Cincinnati Bengals) and DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys).

I have a feeling that Murray is going to have a break out game against the Redskins this weekend. As for Bernard Scott, word from the league is that the starting RB Cedric Benson will be suspended for 3 games because of the off-season incident with the police.

Early 2011 FFL Notes

From now on, I'm going to make it a point to draft the Houston Texans backup running back. Don't waste the pick until the late rounds, but the Texans are slowly becoming the new Denver Broncos with the running game. Ben Tate is poised to take over the starting spot from Arian Foster, which Foster had previously done to Steve Slaton. I wouldn't be surprised if any marginal RB can be a productive starter in the Texans offense.

The new Brandon Lloyd for the Denver Broncos this year is Eric Decker. He is averaging over 20 yards a reception while Lloyd himself is banged up and most likely will not put up numbers close to last year.

Peyton Hillis is for real. I don't know how this is the case but he should have been one of the top 5 draft picks taken this year. I saw him fall to the 3rd round in one of my drafts and I'm kicking myself for not taking him.

Even though Kansas City was awful in their first two games and lost their star RB for the year, this should be a good year for WR Dwayne Bowe because Matt Cassel is still a good QB. The same can not be said for the receivers playing for the Colts. Be prepared for Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon to have seasons much like Steve Smith had last year in Carolina.

Finally, I would like to select my can't miss kicker of the weekend. I have two of them that I like. First, any New Orleans Saints kicker and this week it is John Kasay. My second pick is Rob Bironas from the Tennessee Titans. Denver has a bend but don't break defense that has been giving up a lot of field goals. Even though Bironas has missed two field goals, one of them was from 67 yards and he is essentially 4 out of 5 this year.

Injuries

Obviously injuries can hurt a Fantasy Football team for a week or longer. Last week, my team lost Michael Vick, Malcolm Floyd and Jamal Charles during the game. There wasn't a whole lot of chance for me to win.

This makes picking up backups and replacements a huge part of competing in any league. Do you want a good source to find out the latest FF news?

I always make it a point to visit NFL Blogs every day to see if there is a free agent that you should pop on.

I hope to update my website and keep posting more often on this blog, but life sometimes dictates otherwise and doing something I don't get paid for means it often has to be put on the back burner.